Although sentiment drives prices in the short-term, fundamentals play a major role in determining long-term price action. However, many times, the price follows fundamentals higher with a lag. The crypto markets have an uncanny ability to surprise analysts by moving opposite to the general perception.
As the year draws to an end, the focus will shift to the events of the next year. Bitcoin’s halving, the United States Presidential election and the United Kingdom’s Brexit, are just a few of the events that might influence crypto prices.
Crypto market data weekly view. Source: Coin360
It is difficult to predict the reaction of the crypto markets to such events. Therefore, as investors, identifying the trend of cryptocurrencies is important. Buying in a downtrend can quickly turn the position into a loss and can be mentally taxing. Many times, if the price continues to decline, investors lose patience and dump positions at the bottom. Therefore, it is best to buy in an uptrend or at least after the prices have bottomed out.
After the recent declines, do any of the major cryptocurrencies show signs of bottoming out? Let’s analyze the top performers of the past seven days to see if we spot any buying opportunities.
With a rise of just above 2% in the past seven days, Huobi Token (HT) has turned out to be the best performer. There was no specific news in the past seven days which supported the price increase. Does it mean that the price has declined to levels that make it attractive for the aggressive bulls? Let’s analyze its chart.
The HT/USDT pair has been trading inside a descending channel since topping out in early August. The moving averages are on the verge of a bearish crossover and the RSI is in negative territory, which indicates that bears are in command.
Currently, the bulls are attempting to defend the 61.80% Fibonacci retracement level of the rally from $0.88 to $5.3506. This shows demand at lower levels. If the buyers can push the price above the resistance line of the channel, the pair is likely to pick up momentum. The first target is the $4.08 to $4.37 zone and above it $5.3506. We will wait for the price to sustain above the descending channel before turning positive.
Conversely, if the price turns down from the moving averages at $3 or from the resistance line of the channel at $3.30 and plummets below the recent low of $2.7539, the pair will turn hugely negative.
Bitcoin (BTC) has held up relatively well in the current decline. This shows that stronger hands are not dumping their positions. The digital asset’s market dominance has increased from about 66.3% to about 68.3% over the past week.
Earlier this week billionaire Bitcoin bull Tim Draper reiterated his long-term bullish view on Bitcoin. He expects Bitcoin to reach $250,000 by 2022. Draper’s view was endorsed by Brian Kelly, founder and CEO at BKCM LLC and Fundstrat Global Advisors co-founder Tom Lee. Is Bitcoin a good investment at current levels or can it plummet further? Let’s find out.
The BTC/USD pair is stuck inside a falling wedge pattern. If the bulls can propel the price above the wedge, it will signal a change in trend. The bulls held the critical support at $6,512.01 during the week, which shows buying at lower levels.
A breakout of $7,856.76 will complete a double bottom pattern, which is a bullish sign. This setup has a minimum target objective of $9,201.51. Above this level, a move to $10,360.89 is possible. Therefore, traders can buy on a close (UTC time) above $7,856.78 and keep a stop below the recent low of $6,435.
Contrary to our assumption, if the price turns down from the downtrend line, the pair might consolidate between $7,856.76 and $6,512.01 for a few more weeks. The pair will resume its downtrend on a break below $6,512.01. Such a move will dampen sentiment and delay the start of the next leg of the up move.
TRON’s (TRX) founder Justin Sun has committed $1 million to young Swedish activist Great Thunberg’s initiative to raise awareness about the climate. The altcoin was the third-best performer of the past seven days with a marginal rise of just over 1%. Can the bulls build on this outperformance or will the bears pounce on this attempt to bounce? Let’s study the chart.
The bulls have once again held the support at $0.011240, which is a positive sign. This shows accumulation by the buyers at lower levels. The TRX/USD pair can now move up to $0.0163957, which is likely to act as a strong resistance.
If the price turns down from $0.0163957 or from the 20-week EMA, it might remain range-bound for a few more weeks. The pair will resume its downtrend on a break below $0.011240.
Conversely, if the bulls can scale the price above the 20-week EMA, a rise to $0.02340 is possible. We will wait for the price to rise and sustain above $0.0163957 before turning positive in the short-term.
NEO was among the top five performers for the second consecutive week. This is a positive sign as it shows that NEO’s investors are not dumping their holdings in the recent decline. Is this a sign that the altcoin is getting ready for a sharp rebound? Let’s find out.
The bulls bought the dip below $8 in the past week, which is a positive sign. It shows buying at lower levels. However, we anticipate the NEO/USD pair to face stiff resistance at the moving averages.
If the price turns down from the moving averages, the bears will again attempt to sink the pair to the critical support at $5.58. A break below this level will be a huge negative and will resume the downtrend.
On the other hand, if the bulls can propel the price above the moving averages, a rally to $13.88772 is likely. We will wait for the price to bounce off the support at $5.58 or sustain above the moving averages before turning positive.
UNUS SED LEO (LEO) slipped by about 2% in the past seven days but still turned out as the fifth-best performer among major cryptocurrencies. This shows that the sentiment remains negative across the crypto sector.
Cryptocurrency exchange Bitfinex is attempting to attract customers by expanding its services. It recently announced that its users can purchase cryptocurrencies with both debit cards or credit cards directly. Will these steps by Bitfinex boost LEO’s price? Let’s analyze its chart.
The LEO/USD pair is in a downtrend. It dipped to $0.83712 levels during the week, which was very close to our target objective of $0.8276. We anticipate this level to provide some support. The RSI has also dipped into the oversold zone, which suggests a relief rally is likely.
On the upside, the bulls will face stiff resistance at $0.941. If the price turns down from this level, the bears will attempt to resume the downtrend. A break below the recent low of $0.83712 can drag the price to $0.65.
The pair will show strength if it sustains above $0.941. We will wait for a new buy setup to form before turning positive.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.
The market data is provided by the HitBTC exchange.